ABSTRACT
The relevance of this article is due, on the one hand, to the importance of the oil and gas industry in the development of Iraq and, on the other hand, the inability to enhance the existing capacities of the gas industry due to both serious systemic internal causes and external problems. The objective of this article is to study the prospects of the gas industry in conjunction with the oil industry, and develop a strategy for their development based on the forecasting of future scenarios. In the article, the research methods used included a systematic analysis of economic, social and cultural conditions, considering the history of Iraq, including a review of statistical data and a variety of sources. The article proposes a method for choosing the industry development strategy on the basis of an analytical hierarchy process, based on an algorithm of iterative processes using an analysis of hierarchies. To clarify the actors’ policies and strategic goals and to find the optimal solution, repeated iterations of the choice of strategy have been proposed. The strategies were divided into alternative strategies for future scenarios, which were evaluated in actions as able to achieve the goals by determining the consistency ratio and the consistency index. As a result of the study, we can highlight the analysis of the centralized system of oil and gas resources’ management that has developed in Iraq, which has a complicated “top-down” delegation of decisions and responsibility, with decisions made at the political level and resources distributed from above, which precludes individual industries from performing their functions, and also limits the effective implementation of strategic development priorities. The development factors for the gas industry in Iraq were identified and systematized with a rationale for the direction of the industry’s strategic development. Groups of factors were identified: market-affecting determinants of the development of the gas industry, as well as other considerations that may, to a lesser extent, affect the development of Iraq’s gas industry and the oil and gas complex as a whole. The results, assessing the significance of the actors’ goals, can be taken as a basis for development strategies for the oil and gas industry, to improve the contract system of the gas industry in conjunction with the oil industry.